By, Isa Mohammed PhD
The long-awaited and official defection of Governor Dr Agbu Kefas of Taraba State took place on Saturday, 31st January 2026, at the famous Jolly Nyame Stadium, Jalingo The reception ceremony was very colourful and historically based on the personalities that attended the programme.
The political atmosphere in Nigeria is taking shape with alliances, coalitions, and defections of political actors, particularly governors. The pattern of the defections indicated that the All Progressives Congress (APC), the ruling party under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has introduced a new political strategy of winning the 2027 elections before the ballots.
Why is this happening? This is a question of Nigeria's political culture and elite politics guided by self-preservation and political expediency rather than national or ideological politics. I intend to unpack three things in this short piece. First, the new grand political strategy of Gov Kefas. Second, the challenges ahead in achieving that and thirdly the grey areas. This is generally the aim of this write-up.
Kefas: The Grand Political Strategy
In 2023, Gov. Kefas defied all obstacles to be elected. In 2027, Gov. Kefas worked on a new political strategy to retain power. This strategy is the defection to the ruling party, the APC. It is not an easy move without thinking and challenges as people were made believe.
Nobody contemplated the defection of the entire PDP structure in Taraba State to the APC until Gov. Kefas conceived and logically executed it. Taraba State is the only northern Nigerian state that has remained under the People's Democratic Party's control since 1999.
Gov Kefas used one stone to kill three birds. First, he neutralised his main opposition in the state the APC power elites. Secondly, he got the support of the APC/PBAT with his political team. Thirdly, he seeks to unite the divisions in the state based on identity politics; tribal, zonal, and religious differences. How to achieve that is another question of political craft.
Reasons for Defection to APC
The defection, as earlier stated, is a political game plan for 2027. However, the messaging is premised on three factors.
Joining the APC is to align with the government and the centre for easy political decisions, including party differences. Another factor is to attract federal projects and appointments to the state. So far, many uncompleted projects were identified in Taraba State; the Ibi Bridge, Numan-Jalingo Road, Namnai Bridge, Mambilla Hydroelectric Power Project etc If the APC can influence the continuation and completion of these projects, it would serve as a boost to Gov. Kefas reelection bid. Last but not least is winning the 2027 election to complete the 8-year tenure.
Conditions for Winning Reelection
It is expected that Tarabans will support the reelection of Gov. Kefas based on his campaign promises. He promised the Five Fingers security, education, economy and job creation, women and youth empowerment, and healthcare delivery. Gov. Kefas introduced free education, which is his major popular policy direction in the state. Despite the implementation problem, the policy has astronomically increased the number of school enrollments in the state. Challenges of payments, reading materials, and infrastructure remain.
The nature of political mobilisation during campaigns, the messages, the engagements, the structure, and inclusivity will matter a lot for the reelection.
Challenges Before Gov. Kefas
No doubt, there would be enormous challenges before Gov. Kefas, as he formally takes charge as the leader of the APC in Taraba State. These challenges are many, but political balance and tactics can neutralise many but not all. It begins with unifying the APC. It is a transition from the old APC to the new APC. The formation of State EXCOS and leadership structure in the LGAs and 168 wards in Taraba State. The unity government is another big issue for balancing interests and symbolic political messages to the national APC.
A major challenge will be the towards and during the conduct of primaries. Without internal democracy, there will be second defections after primaries for those with political ambitions. How Gov. Kefas handles the power shift demands, rhetoric, and debate is a challenge.
The Grey Areas Towards 2027
In my opinion, Gov. Kefas is a good political strategist who is very far-sighted and decisive. His method may be slow or brutal, but politics and power do not give place to morality.
The opposition parties are where the problems are. The PDP, ADC, NNPP and SDP present more danger than a divided APC. The reasons are who becomes a candidate, from which zones, tribe, or religion can create surprises and dilemmas at the polls.
The possible scenarios of 2023 with Sen. Bwacha, Prof. Yahaya, Sen. Ikenya, and Hon. Baido, the result was a battle of votes unimaginable. The three major contenders, Sen. Bwacha got 142, 502 votes, Prof Yahaya got 202, 277 while Gov Kefas, the winner, got 257, 926 votes. Sen. Bwacha and Prof Yahaya got 344,779 votes in total. This scenario if repeated will be very unpredictable
The dimension and direction of the national political direction is a very big equation that can affect the way elections will take place.
What happened to agroup in APC and PDP that sit on the fence is another factor to consider to achieve victory. Inclusivity and fairness can boost the chances of Gov. Kefas.
The defection is a historic moment to make history, not a moment to change history, in Taraba politics.
The Verdict for Gov Kefas
The political calculations towards 2027 in Taraba State gave Gov. Kefas a substantial amount of support. The support from both the APC and PDP as major parties with the largest membership added a layer to his expected bold political game plan in Taraba State's political history. He is seeking reelection, and the political gladiators fear that if another person is elected in another zone, he may spend 8 years before power shifts to another zone. As it stands, 50/50, the remaining analysis will come a year from now. God bless Taraba State.
Isa Mohammed PhD
Political Consultant
1st February 2026.
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